PflugervilleSingle-Family Homes Market Snapshot
From Balanced to Buyer-Leaning.
Pflugerville shifted from a balanced market in August to a buyer-leaning market in September. Active listings increased 11.7%, while closings declined 15.0%. Inventory rose to 5.86 months, and absorption slowed to 17.07%.
The closed median price increased to $377,000, up 3.6%. However, longer selling times, lower closed-to-list price ratios, and higher seller-paid closing costs suggest buyers gained negotiating room. Higher sale prices alone do not establish appreciation because the mix of homes sold changes each month.
At a Glance
- Closed Sales91▼ -15.0% MoM
- Closed Median$377,000▲ +3.6% MoM
- Close-to-List97.59%▼ -0.82 pts
- Closed Avg DOM69.5▼ Slower: +5.9 days
- Months of Inventory5.86▼ +1.40 mo
- Seller Concessions$7,967▼ +3.8% MoM
September 2026 Market Snapshot
Pending and Under Contract listings totaled 124, compared with 123 in August — a nearly unchanged pipeline alongside 56 more active listings. Expired and Withdrawn records combined rose from 59 to 70 (counts of records carrying each status, not verified monthly status-change totals).
*Below $300k uses the plugin cutoff of list price below $301,000 (strict below-$300,000: 47 in September, 33 in August) — up 48.6%, giving buyers more choices. Homes without HOA counts active records whose HOA Requirement is not “Mandatory,” including blanks (1 voluntary HOA recorded, 72 blank/unknown; August: 1 and 62), so it does not establish that the homes have no HOA.
Pricing & Time on Market
Closed prices increased, but sellers accepted a larger average discount from asking price and paid more toward buyers’ closing costs. The active median asking price declined as inventory expanded, while pending asking prices rose to a $386,000 median ($399,799 average), suggesting a higher-priced mix in the pending pool. Pending prices are list prices; final sale prices are not yet available.
Close-to-list % is the average of the CP$/LP$ % field. Seller-paid closing costs include recorded zero amounts. Closed DOM averages use 90 September and 106 August records; active DOM uses 522 and 472, excluding blanks.
Absorption Rate
91 closed of 533 active single-family listings in September.
Down 5.36 points from August (22.43%) as inventory grew and closings slowed.
Listing Activity
Inventory Climbs, Buyers Gain Ground.
Month-Over-Month
Market Conditions Scale
Months of InventoryAt 5.86 months of inventory, Pflugerville sits at the buyer edge of the scale — more choice, more negotiating room, and less urgency for buyers.
September inventory increased 1.40 months to 5.86 while absorption declined 5.36 points to 17.07%. Under the plugin’s classification rules, September meets both buyer-leaning thresholds (15%–19% absorption and 5.1–7 months of inventory); August met both balanced-market thresholds. Neither month is on a classification cusp. Months of inventory = Active ÷ monthly Closed; absorption = Closed ÷ Active × 100.
The 3 Fastest-Moving Subdivisions
Ranked by average nonnegative DOM among September 2026 closed listings, using subdivision names exactly as recorded. Closed homes overall took 69.5 days (up 5.9); active listings averaged 81.3 days (down 6.6), which can reflect inventory mix rather than faster sales. Closings with valid DOM: Pfennig Place 2, The Groves at Blackhawk 1, Falcon Pointe 1 — small samples with limited evidence about broader subdivision performance. One Groves at Blackhawk closing reporting −4 DOM was excluded.
Pfennig Place
The Groves at Blackhawk
Falcon Pointe
September vs. August: What Actually Changed.
| Metric | August | September | Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Closed Sales | 107 | 91 | -14.95% | |
| Active Listings | 477 | 533 | +11.74% | |
| Pending | 88 | 87 | -1.14% | |
| Under Contract | 35 | 37 | +5.71% | |
| Expired | 20 | 26 | +30.00% | |
| Withdrawn | 39 | 44 | +12.82% | |
| Homes without HOA* | 63 | 73 | +15.87% | |
| Priced below $300k* | 37 | 55 | +48.65% | |
| Closed Median Price | $363,999 | $377,000 | +3.57% | |
| Closed Average Price | $387,024 | $402,186 | +3.92% | |
| Avg $ / Closed Sq Ft | $179.99 | $193.50 | +7.51% | |
| Seller-Paid Closing Costs | $7,672 | $7,967 | +3.85% | |
| Close-to-List % | 98.41% | 97.59% | -0.83% | |
| Active Median Price | $395,000 | $388,999 | -1.52% | |
| Active Average Price | $435,164 | $434,887 | -0.06% | |
| Pending Median Price | $364,665 | $386,000 | +5.85% | |
| Pending Average Price | $376,513 | $399,799 | +6.18% | |
| Closed Avg DOM | 63.6 | 69.5 | +9.28% | |
| Active Avg DOM | 87.9 | 81.3 | -7.51% | |
| Months of Inventory | 4.46 | 5.86 | +31.39% | |
| Absorption Rate | 22.43% | 17.07% | -23.90% |
Noteworthy Market Trends
Volume Cools
Closed sales fell 15.0% to 91 while active listings rose 11.7% to 533 — 56 more homes competing for buyers.
Buyer-Leaning Shift
Months of inventory jumped 1.40 to 5.86 and absorption fell to 17.07%, crossing from balanced into buyer-leaning.
Slower Closings
Closed homes averaged 69.5 days on market, up 5.9 days from August's 63.6.
Bigger Discounts
Close-to-list fell to 97.59% (−0.82 pts) and seller-paid closing costs rose to $7,967.
Prices Up on Mix
Closed median rose 3.6% to $377,000 and $/sq ft rose 7.5% to $193.50 — but mix, not appreciation, may explain it.
More Affordable Choices
Homes under the plugin's $301k cutoff rose 48.6% to 55, while expired + withdrawn records climbed from 59 to 70.
Looking Ahead: A Buyer-Leaning October.
Pflugerville is likely to remain buyer-leaning in October if September’s inventory and closing conditions persist.
Why
- Growing active inventory and a nearly unchanged Pending plus Under Contract pool suggest continued competition among sellers.
- Longer closed selling times, larger discounts from list price, and higher seller-paid closing costs point to continued negotiation over price and concessions.
Expectations for October
- The higher pending median asking price could support the next month’s closed median if those homes close near asking.
- Buyers should keep leverage on price, terms, and closing-cost help.
- Two monthly extracts do not support a reliable numerical price forecast or a seasonal conclusion.
Disclaimer: My predictions are bar any unforeseen events causing outliers — and it’s possible my crystal ball may not be functioning properly.
Interested in Your Neighborhood?
Lauren A. Petty, REALTOR®
I’m a professional analyst and project manager now a REALTOR®, serving the information without sales-talk. That’s exactly how I support buyers and sellers: strategy and calm so you can make clear decisions.
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